Chinese views of the nuclear endgame in North Korea

ABSTRACT

This article examines Chinese views of North Korea’s nuclear-weapon program during the Donald J. Trump administration. It shows that China has portrayed itself as a responsible country that promotes regional stability, unlike the United States, which has engaged in military brinkmanship with North Korea. Some Chinese foreign-policy experts have asserted that Beijing should back Pyongyang in the event of war because of their shared history of humiliation by great powers, while others have favored working with other regional partners. Another theme in Chinese discourse about North Korea is that Pyongyang is an impetuous, ungrateful regime that impedes Beijing’s ability to attain its core interests of regional stability, economic development, and heightened global influence. This negative assessment of North Korea drove Beijing’s endorsement of stricter UN sanctions in 2017. While Beijing has punished Pyongyang for its wayward policies, China responded favorably to North Korea’s decision in April 2018 to stop nuclear tests and partake in international dialogue. Beijing seeks to help Pyongyang gradually disarm and develop its economy within a Chinese-led East Asian order. The article concludes by explaining how Beijing’s recent, more positive view of Pyongyang is likely to affect its support for American efforts to dismantle North Korea’s nuclear-weapon program.     

基于偏差熵的专家聚类赋权方法

在群决策专家聚类赋权过程中,可能出现专家给出的判断矩阵一致性比率与排序向量信息熵都相等但专家意见不同,却被赋予了相同权重的情况。针对上述问题,提出一种基于偏差熵的专家聚类赋权方法。该方法采用聚类分析的思想,基于比例构建相似系数,实现对专家群的分类;引入专家判断矩阵的一致性权重,并综合类容量构建权重指标来反映类别间的差异,确定专家类间权重;最后,在各专家类中建立偏差熵模型,依据类中专家达成一致性意见的贡献程度确定专家的类内权重,并得到专家的总体权重。具体算例表明,该方法可行有效。     

磁浮轨道不平顺对悬浮系统影响的抑制方法

为了研究磁浮轨道不平顺对悬浮系统的影响,介绍了轨枕铺设、轨道梁距离这两个轨道周期性不平顺的主要来源,建立带轨道周期性不平顺的悬浮模块模型。在此基础上,从干扰输入和系统输出的角度探究轨道不平顺对悬浮系统的影响。以数值仿真的方式,分析系统在额定车速下,受到不同轨道波长激励时的悬浮间隙波动输出。结合唐山轨道不平顺功率谱,指出车辆运行时的敏感波长区域,从轨枕铺设和轨道梁架设距离两个方面提出改进意见。针对现有的磁浮轨道工况,从控制器设计角度研究调整控制参数对抑制轨道周期性不平顺干扰的影响。     

A Cursed and Fragmented Island: History and Conflict Analysis in Bougainville,Papua New Guinea

This paper is a review piece examining the main factors responsible for the civil war, lasting from 1988 to 1998, on Bougainville island, an autonomous region in Papua New Guinea. History, economy, and social aspects of the island – especially traditional society features, mining activities, the effects of colonization and industrialization – are highlighted. The aim of the article is to identify which factors best explain the outbreak of the conflict. The main assumption is that no single factor can explain the civil war, as these elements require a comprehensive analysis. The ‘resource curse’ theory, i.e. the presence of natural resources leading to economic failure, and the existence of ethnic cleavages, are proposed as explanations, although further factors must also taken into account. Finally, the analysis helps to contextualize the unfolding events in Bougainville and its path to democratization.     

一类二阶微分方程Poincaré分岔极限环的不存在性

讨论一类二阶微分方程x¨+εf(x,x.)x.+g(x)=0的Poincar分岔极限环的不存在性,利用一阶Mel’nikov函数直接从整体上进行分析讨论,得出了若干充分条件和判别准则。     

基于Sobol’法的歼击机需求影响因素灵敏度分析

针对歼击机需求确定影响因素众多、传统分析方法仅能进行定性分析的问题,提出了基于Sobol’法的歼击机需求影响因素灵敏度分析方法。在构建了歼击机需求确定模型的基础上,提出了基于Sobol’法的歼击机需求确定模型参数灵敏度分析步骤,并结合算例验证了方法的可行性和有效性。分析结果表明:我方拟夺取空中优势等级的概率、敌方出动歼击机的数量和敌我双方歼击机作战效能的比值对歼击机需求的影响较大,战术运用系数、协同作战系数和管理优劣系数的影响微乎其微。     

论消防法中责令停产停业处罚的实施主体

消防法中责令停产停业处罚的决定主体应当包括人民政府和公安消防机构。其中 ,重大的责令停产停业处罚的决定主体应当是地方县级以上人民政府而不是公安消防机构。这是由重大的责令停产停业处罚的严厉性、对经济和社会生活影响的重大性、受处罚组织的特殊性以及处罚实施主体权限的法定性决定的 ,也与地方人民政府的行政管理职能相适应 ,并且符合我国的立法例。责令停产停业处罚的执行主体应当是公安消防机构。     

磁隐身坦克的实验设计及性能检测

通过模拟实验,研究了磁隐身坦克的核心元件——同轴密绕消磁线圈的使用性能。实验室对其消磁效应的数据分析表明:同轴密绕消磁线圈能够消除坦克周围因被地磁场磁化而产生的磁场标志,其中近轴区域的消磁效果更为明显;如果在消磁线圈中通入反向电流,消磁物体的磁场反而会增强,呈缓慢磁化的趋势,这与电磁场理论相符。本实验设计的消磁线圈属于一种新功能的电磁装甲,能提高坦克在电磁战中的生存能力。